Build on a Solid Core and Keep Your Superstar

                A group led by Derek Jeter just purchased the Miami Marlins.  The face of that franchise, rightfielder Giancarlo Stanton, has requested to be traded if the intention is going to be a full tear-down and rebuild.  My question is: why would they?  This is a team with a very strong youth core starting with arguably the best outfield in baseball.  Beyond that, they have only three players that will be free agents this offseason and only five more after next season.

                Let’s start with Stanton.  At only 27, he is coming off a 2017 season where he led all MLB hitters in home runs (59) and RBI (132).  He also led the NL in slugging percentage (.631) and was 2^nd in runs scored (123).  He sits firmly in what is likely to be a two-horse race for the NL MVP with Nolan Arenado of the Rockies.  Beyond that, he has established himself as one of the most feared hitters in this generation.

                Accompanying Stanton in the outfield are two budding young superstars, Marcell Ozuna (26) and Christian Yelich (25).  Ozuna will also garner votes for MVP, though his numbers are greatly overshadowed by Stanton’s.  He was tied for 3^rd in the NL in home runs (37), 3^rd in RBI (124), 6^th in batting average (.312), and 9^th in slugging (.548). Yelich was one of only 8 NL hitters to score 100 runs, due in large part to Stanton and Ozuna hitting behind him.  He also plays an above-average centerfield in one of the more difficult outfields in the league.

                It’s not just the outfield that is talented and infused with youth.  Dee Gordon might be the most prototypical leadoff hitter in baseball.  The 29-year-old second baseman led the MLB in stolen bases (60), collected 201 hits (T-2^nd NL), and tallied 9 triples (T-3^rd NL).  JT Realmuto (26) has very quietly established himself as one of the best young catchers in the game.  Among MLB catchers, he ranked near the top in runs scored (68, 2^nd), hits (148, 2^nd), doubles (31, 2^nd), triples (5, 1^st), RBI (65, 6^th), batting average (.278, 2^nd), and slugging (.451, 3^rd).  He also played in more games and had more at bats than any other catcher.  Justin Bour, a former Rule 5 pick, is coming off a strong season where he hit .289 with 25 home runs and 83 RBI despite missing all of August with an oblique strain.

                There are definitely some areas that will need some addressing in the offseason.  Third baseman Martin Prado and prospect shortstop JT Riddle are both coming off surgeries.  Prado is the only projected starting position player over the age of 30.  Miami is one of the few teams that could be in the market to add at shortstop.  The pitching will also need some addressing.  Edinson Volquez went down in August and had to undergo Tommy John surgery.  He may not play in 2018.  Dan Straily and Jose Urena had strong years.  Wei-Yin Chen had some elbow issues that limited him to nine games and only five starts.  He holds a player option for 2018.  AJ Ramos was traded midseason, so the Marlins are without an established closer.  They have plenty of young bullpen arms available, so it is possible that they could find someone to fill that void from within.

                On a team that has all eight positional starters under control for at least another two seasons and all but one under the age of 30, a complete rebuild seems like a foolish endeavor.  They will definitely need to address the pitching rotation and shore up behind some players coming off major injuries, but this team is only a couple of pieces away from building a playoff contender.  If the Marlins ownership takes what they have and builds on it, watch out for Miami in 2018 and for years to come.

An Oriole without a Roost

We are coming up on the end of the year and most of the big-name free agents have inked new deals.  As the rumors continue to swirl, most of the remaining top targets fall into the same general market of right-handed power-hitters that either fit at first base, corner outfield, or designated hitter.  Everyone seems to be talking about Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Trumbo, and Jose Bautista and the potential domino effect into names like Mike Napoli, Chris Carter, and the rest of the market below.  There is one all-star that the rumor wheel has been rather quiet about.

Matt Wieters was one of the first players to accept a qualifying offer after last season and came back from Tommy John surgery with a season that garnered him a fourth all-star selection.  He was not eligible for another qualifying offer and therefore is not tied to a draft pick, but there really are not many teams looking for a primary catcher.  The Blue Jays, Cardinals, Dodgers, Giants, Indians, Pirates, Rangers, and Royals all have stud veteran catchers in place.  The Mariners, Marlins, Mets, Phillies, Red Sox, and Yankees all have talented young catchers that are expected and long-term fixtures behind the plate.

Even though the rumors about Wieters have been minimal, there have been quite a few teams that have already made moves for catchers.  Wilson Ramos was the top catching target after having a career year that landed him a 2-year deal with Tampa Bay despite recovering from a torn ACL that may prevent him from being available on Opening Day.  After losing Ramos, the Nationals traded for Derek Norris from the Padres.  Wieters’s former team, the Orioles, just signed Welington Castillo to be their starter instead of continuing with Wieters for a 9^th consecutive year.  The Astros landed Brian McCann in free agency and traded Jason Castro to be the starter in Minnesota.  The Brewers and Angels also completed a trade this week to swap Martin Maldonado, the new projected starter in Los Angeles, and Jett Bandy, who will split time with Andrew Susac in Milwaukee.  After removing those teams, although the Angels/Brewers deal may not preclude them from moving on Wieters, there are only nine remaining landing spots for the former Oriole backstop.

The White Sox may be the team with the biggest need a catcher.  Their current situation is a platoon between Omar Narvaez and Kevan Smith.  Those two only combined for only 117 at-bats last season with the bulk of the workload going to Alex Avila and Dioner Navarro, who are both currently free agents.  However, the White Sox have been selling off all of their high-priced players and rebuilding their farm system this offseason, so they would be less likely to spend the money on Wieters.

The Tigers could be the best fit.  They have James McCann, who has proven to be a top defender that the positon.  However, McCann has been significantly better against left-handed pitching in his career.  The switch-hitting Wieters has put up fairly balanced splits in his career.  He has tended better against lefties in his career, but was better against right-handers last season and the two previous that we shortened by his elbow surgery.  The Tigers have been in talks to move some of their high-priced talent, but still have a strong offense in place and could still be looking to win in 2017.

The Rockies have been making moves and rumored to have more on the horizon.  They brought in Ian Desmond and have been rumored to be in talks with Encarnacion and Trumbo.  The front office has announced that they are comfortable with the platoon they have in place with Tony Wolters and Tom Murphy, but if they are looking to make a run in 2017, the addition of a switch-hitting catcher with pop from both sides of the plate could be a significant upgrade.

The Cubs and Diamondbacks both have interesting situations at catcher.  The Cubs have young phenom Willson Contreras projected as the starter.  However, Contreras is lacking in defensive ability and can also be used at first base and in the outfield.  Wieters is a strong defender that could solidify the catching position, but he also has a high price tag for part-time catcher.  The Diamondbacks will likely go with a platoon between Chris Herrmann and Jeff Mathis.  Herrmann is similar to Contreras in that he can also play the corners on the infield and in the outfield.  This situation could be one to carry three catchers with Herrmann’s utility, but again, the price for Wieters is high to be splitting time three ways.

The remaining teams would all get an improvement at catcher with the acquisition of Wieters, but are less likely to really be potential suitors.  Atlanta, Cincinnati, Oakland, and San Diego are all in the process of rebuilding.  Wieters and his high price tag would be unlikely to be paid as an upgrade over Tyler Flowers and Anthony Recker in Atlanta or the platoon of Bruce Maxwell and Josh Phegley in Oakland.  Cincinnati still has Devin Mesoraco, but his health has been inconsistent throughout his career.  San Diego has top prospect Austin Hedges that could use a veteran presence around him, but they may not want to pay for Wieters to be his tutor.

Wieters has been a fixture as the backstop in Baltimore for his entire career.  He made his 4^th all-star roster in 2016, which is tied with Russell Martin, Salvador Perez, and Buster Posey and is only behind Brian McCann and Yadier Molina (each with 7) among active catchers.  He has a well-rounded set of tools and can be the everyday catcher wherever he ends up.

NOTE: As I was writing this article, there were rumors beginning to swirl that Wieters was likely to sign with the Nationals.  He would be an upgrade despite their previous acquisition of Derek Norris.

"So we signed the reigning Home Run Champ. What's next?"

The Mariners blew away expectations and ended up one game short of the playoffs in 2014.  Now they have locked up their Gold Glove third baseman long-term and signed the Major League home run leader to hold down their cleanup spot.  With many of their key pieces in place, a lot of questions have been swirling about what the next move for the Mariners front office should be.  They landed Nelson Cruz without giving up a starter (as they would if they traded for Cespedes, Kemp, or Upton), which addressed the most glaring need this offseason.  We may see another big splash from Jack Z, especially with the Winter Meetings taking place next week, but there are a few value moves that I think would be good fits for Seattle.

Mark Trumbo

After being the main piece of one of the marquee deals last winter, Trumbo missed a large portion of the season with a foot injury.  His future in Arizona is questionable, mostly due to his sub-par defense in the outfield.  Trumbo projected to start at a corner outfield position, but his defensive ability is much higher at first base.  Obviously, he’s not going to play much at first for the D’backs because Paul Goldschmidt is a perennial MVP candidate.  With the addition of Yasmany Tomas, Arizona has five other outfielders that are very capable to be starters (Tomas, Pollack, Peralta, Ross, Inciarte) and all of them are stronger defenders that Trumbo.

In Seattle, Trumbo would be a good platoon candidate at first base with Logan Morrison and could also DH with Nelson Cruz in right field.  He fits the mold of the right-handed power bat that the Mariners have been looking for.  The trade situation is also a good fit because Seattle has a wealth of good, young relievers and Arizona is in need of bullpen help.  Trumbo is the most expensive on this list, but still for good value.  He is in his first arbitration year after making $4.8 million last season.

Emilio Bonifacio

Obviously, Bonifacio is not a power bat as I mentioned the Mariners have been looking for.  However, the switch-hitter is strong against left-handed pitching and would be a good addition to the team that was last in the AL in OPS vs lefties (.636) in 2014.  Between the Cubs and Braves, Bonifacio posted a .365/.411/.548 slash line and hit all three of his home runs against southpaws.  He would also bring a speed element that the Mariners only possess with James Jones and less so with Austin Jackson.  With those upsides, Bonifacio is a free agent that has not made more than $2.6 million in a season.

Ryan Doumit

Doumit is also a switch hitter that is balanced throughout his career against right- and left-handed pitchers.  Despite lackluster defensive abilities at any of his positions, he can play catcher, first base, and outfield, which are all positions where the Mariners need more depth.  The former 2^nd round pick is from Moses Lake, WA and would be a good candidate to return to his home state on an incentive-laden contract or potentially as a minor league non-roster invitee.

Gaby Sanchez

After being designated for assignment and then non-tendered by the Pirates this week, Sanchez is now a free agent that was only under contract for $2.3 million last year.  A career .291 hitter vs left-handers, he has served as a solid platoon partner for Ike Davis, Justin Morneau, and Garrett Jones in his 2.5 years in Pittsburgh.  He would be a very capable platoon candidate for Logan Morrison.

Franklin Gutierrez

I know that few Mariners fans will be excited by this notion, but bringing Gutierrez back as a non-roster invitee would be a low-risk, high-reward move.  When healthy, Seattle has seen the strong abilities, especially defensively, that earned him the nickname “Death to Flying Things.”  He took the last year off to focus on getting healthy.  I think it is well worth the chance to let him show if the rest paid off and see if he can return to his pre-illness form when he hit .335/.409/.555 against left-handers in 2009.

DJ Peterson

I know he is not a move that needs to be made, but Peterson should be noted here because he could change the roster landscape depending on his performance in Spring Training and in AAA this year.  He is a right-handed power hitter, just like the Mariners need, that can play first base and DH.  Between High-A and AA last year, Peterson combined for a .295 average, 31 home runs, and 111 runs batted in.  As of today, Peterson is projected to reach the big league club by mid-season, which would make the Mariners only need to fill that roster spot for half of the season.  This gives the Seattle front office even more incentive to go after a low-risk, high-reward move in case Peterson breaks out and forces his call-up earlier than projected.

Already this offseason, the Mariners have shown a willingness to pull the trigger on deals that fill important roster holes.  Mariners fans who were not optimistic after the one-game deficit to finish the season, have even more reason to hopefully look to the future with Cano, Cruz, and Seager powering the lineup for the next four seasons.  Now the offseason comes down to the little moves that pay off and give the Mariners the bump they need to play in October in 2015.

The Little Things That Matter

With a very surprise matchup in the ALCS this year, it is anyone’s guess who will win the American League Pennant in 2014.  Obviously, Eric Hosmer and Nelson Cruz are going to have to come through big as the offensive catalysts for their respective teams.  Barring a major meltdown from one of the teams, a trip to the World Series is going to come down to which team steps up in the key situations.  Here are two small-scale matchups that could have a big influence in deciding the AL Champion.

Royals bullpen VS Orioles long balls

Obviously, the quickest way for a bullpen to blow a lead late in a game is to give up an untimely home run.  The Orioles were the only team in baseball to hit over 200 home runs this season.  Their 211 dingers were trailed by the second place Colorado Rockies and their Coors Field-aided 173.  Nelson Cruz was the only player in baseball to reach the 40-HR mark.

During the regular season, the Royals bullpen gave up the fewest home runs in the American League.  Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera both pitched over 70 innings without giving up a home run.  No Kansas City reliever on the ALCS roster gave up more than three.  In order to hold a lead and get the ball to their All-Star closer, Greg Holland, the Royals bullpen need to keep the Orioles in the ball park.

Orioles catchers VS Royals base-stealers

We already saw the Royals steal a playoff-record seven bases during the Wild Card matchup with Oakland.  They also stole five bases without getting caught during the Division Series against the Angels.  Their 153 steals during the regular season were tops in the Majors by a wide margin and they were caught less than 20% of their attempts.

In order to slow down the Kansas City running game, the Orioles may use Caleb Joseph in a greater capacity, especially in late-game situations.  During the season, Joseph was 2^nd in the AL (min. 50 games at catcher) throwing out 40.4% of potential base stealers.  Between San Diego and Baltimore, starter Nick Hundley threw out only 5 of 36 base stealers (13.9%) which is well below the league average of 27%.  We might see Buck Showalter swallow the slight bump in offense that Hundley brings in order for Joseph to police the bases.

This is going to be an exciting matchup.  Both teams are coming in from an unlikely sweep.  Both are riding a large wave of momentum.  Among the two teams, only the 2012 Orioles have even reached the playoffs in the new millennium.  This has all the makings of a series that baseball fans will remember for many years to come.

Look into my Crystal Ball...

In response to the predictions from the MLB.com staff that showed very little difference of opinion, I decided someone needs to provide a different point of view.  Without my mind control abilities perfected, I guess I will have to just write my own predictions.

The reigning champs are still the team to beat in the East.  They will get a strong fight from both the Rays and the Orioles.  Even with their improved rotation, the Yankees have too many injury questions and their infield is a very big question mark.  In the end, Tampa Bay will take the division.  Their pitching is too deep and their offense will be even better with a full year from Wil Myers.

The Tigers are the best team in the Central, especially with the addition of Ian Kinsler at second base and Joe Nathan as the closer.  They too have a tough fight coming up with the Royals and the Indians.  In this one, the Tigers will still ride Miguel Cabrera’s bat and their trio of aces – Verlander, Scherzer, and Sanchez – to the title.

The AL West is a toss-up.  The Athletics were the popular choice to three-peat until they lost Parker to Tommy John surgery and Griffin has questions about his elbow.  The Rangers brought in Fielder and Choo to bolster an already potent offense, but their roster has also been brutalized by injuries this spring, especially their starting rotation.  The Angels and Mariners both made key moves that will put them squarely in the race.  The division will come down to how well each team play against each other, but more importantly how they play against the Astros.  The youngest team in baseball has a lot of talent coming through the pipeline and will cause a stir in the West, though they are still unlikely to compete themselves.  All that said, the Rangers have too much offense and will keep getting better as they get players back from injuries.

In the Wild Card, the Royals will take the top spot behind their stellar defense and strong core of young players.  The last spot will be a fight, but the Orioles will come out on top.  Chris Davis will make a strong push for MVP and they will see big production from their new faces: Nelson Cruz, David Lough, Ubaldo Jimenez, and prospect Jonathan Schoop.

The Nationals are the far and away favorite in the NL East now that the Braves’ rotation has been decimated by injuries.  Atlanta will struggle to keep in the Wild Card hunt.

Despite the recent winning ways from the Cardinals, this year the Central is wide open and the title will end up in Cincinnati.  The Reds are the most underrated team in baseball and will have a top-5 starting rotation for the 3^rd year in a row.

The NL West may be the best division in baseball top to bottom.  All five teams should be competitive for a playoff spot.  However, the Dodgers are still going to run away with the division while Clayton Kershaw returns from his early season injury to win another ERA title.

In a true battle royale, the Wild Card is going to be a wild ride.  There could be another play-in to the Wild Card Game with how many competitive teams in the race.  In the end, it will come down to a matchup of the two teams that have won the last four NL Pennants: the Giants and the Cardinals.

Wild Card:

Royals beat Orioles

Giants beat Cardinals

Division Series:

Tigers beat Royals

Rays beat Rangers

Dodgers beat Giants

Reds beat Nationals

Championship Series:

Tigers beat Rays

Reds beat Dodgers

World Series:

Reds beat Tigers

The Undervalued Squad

There has been word that Bronson Arroyo is very upset that he has not received a formal offer this late in the offseason.  This is very understandable because his statistics have been nothing but consistent throughout his career.  I think the primary reason Arroyo is getting left out of discussions is because he pitched for one of the most underrated staffs in baseball with the Reds.  Not only him, but all of the pitchers in Cincinnati are terribly underrated.

In the last two seasons, the Reds have had six different starting pitchers make all but seven of the team’s starts.  They ranked 3^rd in the majors in starter ERA with 3.43 in 2013 and 5^th with 3.64 in 2012.  Aside from Arroyo, no pitcher in Cincinnati has yet reached his 28^th birthday.  They got great results from Tony Cingrani in his first taste of the majors in 2013, which has made Arroyo expendable in his free agent year.

Here is a quick rundown of how effective each starter has been in recent years:

·         Bronson Arroyo (36 years old):

o   Arroyo has rattled off 200+ innings in seven of his eight years in Cincinnati with the only exception being 199 innings in 2011. He also has had an ERA under 4.00 in four of his last five season (the exception, again, being 5.07 in 2011).  In 2013, Arroyo commanded a 1.15 WHIP which was good for 22^nd in baseball.  The one big knock on his season was an NL-worst 32 home runs allowed.

·         Homer Bailey (27):

o   Bailey has been the center of some offseason news with the possibility of the Reds locking him up long-term.  With the retirement of Roy Halladay this offseason, Bailey is one of only three active pitchers (Verlander, Buehrle) with two career no-hitters with his coming in each of the least two seasons.  His WHIP was better than Arroyo’s at 1.12 (16^th) and he had a career-high 8.57 K/9.

·         Tony Cingrani (24):

o   Cingrani lived up to expectations in limited time in 2013.  After being the 5^th top left-handed pitching prospect (#57 overall) in 2012, Cingrani was given an opportunity to start in place of the injured Johnny Cueto.  He posted a 2.77 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and .192 BA against as a starter.  In 104 2/3 total innings, Cingrani recorded 120 strikeouts.  With Arroyo a free agent, Cingrani looks to be the heavy favorite to round out the Reds rotation in 2014.

·         Johnny Cueto (27):

o   Cueto has long been my vote for the most underrated player in baseball.  He has finished the past three seasons with a sub-3.00.  The only qualifying pitcher to complete this feat is Clayton Kershaw.  Cueto has also finished each of those three seasons with a sub-1.20 WHIP.  He did have injuries limit him to 11 starts in 2013.  When healthy, he is one of the best pitchers in baseball even though he is often not even regarded as the ace on his own team.

·         Mat Latos (26):

o   Latos was brought over from San Diego to be the ace in Cincinnati and have gotten results on a high level.  In his two seasons with the Reds, Latos has recorded 14 wins, 200+ innings, and a sub-3.50 ERA each year.  He has also had over 180 strikeouts in each of his four full seasons.  Despite Cueto’s injury issues, Latos has kept a solid force at the top of the rotation in Cincinnati.

·         Mike Leake (26):

o   Leake actually had the highest WHIP of any starter on the Reds last season.  That mark was a whopping 1.25 and ranked 48^th among qualifying starters.  He also put up a 3.37 ERA and pitched 192.1 innings.  Those are pretty strong numbers for a 4^th or 5^th starter.

So with this level of success, the Cincinnati Reds rotation is unarguably one of the best in baseball.  All four qualifying starters had ERA under 4.00 and ranked in the top 50 in WHIP.  The outlook in Cincinnati is also very positive because all five returning starters are still very young.  Not only is their rotation very effective now, but they could be one of the top rotations for the next five years or more.  Other teams need to take note that the Reds are going to stay contenders for a long time.

The Secret Weapon

Baseball America recently released their Top Tools list and there is one major aspect that has me puzzled.  For those of you not familiar, the list details the top three players from each league in a number of different attribute categories, or “tools.”  The well-known tools of a so-called 5-tool player are ability to hit for contact, ability to hit for power, speed, defensive ability, and arm.  This list goes a bit further in depth, with 20 total categories: five offensive, two for baserunning, eight for pitchers, six for the best defensive player at each position, two for arm (infield and outfield), the most exciting player, and the best manager.  Names like Trout, Cabrera, McCutchen, Kershaw, and Verlander appear frequently across the different tools.  There is one name, however, that is found on two separate lists.  It is this player that is the source of my puzzlement.

The name is Tony Campana.  For those of you who haven’t heard of him, do not be too surprised.  He has only played in two partial seasons for the Cubs (2011-12) and has only appeared in two games in the majors this season for Arizona.  Now, I am really not surprised that Campana is not finding playing time in Arizona.  The Diamondbacks outfield has a pretty solid logjam between Gerardo Parra, Cody Ross, Jason Kubel, rookie AJ Pollack, rookie Adam Eaton, and utilityman Martin Prado.  The part that surprises me is that another team doesn’t go get him.  Not every outfield is as deep as the one in Arizona and Campana has the tools (as published in Baseball America) to warrant at least fairly regular playing time at the major league level.

In his career, the 27-year-old Campana has hit .299 in the minor leagues and posted a .262 average in his two years in Chicago.  I will admit, his power abilities are basically null.  His one major league home run was an inside-the-park homer at Wrigley.  It is his small-ball abilities that make him valuable.  He is rated the third-best bunter in the National League behind Everth Cabrera of the Padres and Juan Pierre of the Marlins.  He is also the third-fastest baserunner behind Cabrera and Carlos Gomez from Milwaukee.  Keep in mind the National League has a tendency to lean toward small-ball tactics.  Campana was also rated the best baserunner in the Pacific Coast League (AAA) in the minor league area of the Baseball America lists.

Through 2011-12 in Chicago, Campana played in 184 games.  During that time, he was 54/59 (91.5%) on stolen bases.  That is also one stolen base every 3.4 games.  Even with only playing in two games this season, Campana has managed to swipe two bags in three attempts.  That puts his career 162-game average at 49 successful steals and only 5 times being caught.  With those totals, he would have tied Mike Trout for the most steals in the majors in 2012.  Not to mention, his 90.91% SB efficiency last season was tied with Emilio Bonifacio for sixth and his 92.31% was good for third in 2011.

The question remains, how is a player like this so undervalued that he only has managed two major league games this season?  He is a solid defender with only one error in 184 total chances in the majors.  His arm is nothing special, but he is absolutely apt to play left or center field regularly.  I do not necessarily feel Campana should be an everyday player, but his value as a pinch-runner and fourth outfielder at the very least merits a roster spot.  Having a player that will steal successfully nine times out of ten on your bench is basically like having a secret weapon.  He can fill in as a defensive replacement, pinch-runner, or a pinch-hitter vs RHP.

My mind is boggled by how no team has found Campana to be valuable enough to pry him away from Arizona and keep him on the roster for the season.  He would fit well in St. Louis with his ability to run for aging hitters like Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday who have lost a step.  The Yankees have lost Granderson to injury again and have a team that, aside from Brett Gardner and Ichiro, is basically devoid of a speed element.  The Red Sox have a similar situation with only Jacoby Ellsbury as a major threat on the basepaths.  Campana could be a runner and defensive sub in left field for Boston.  If I was a new GM looking to build a team, he would not be the first player on the list, but I am sure there would be a spot on the roster for Tony Campana and I am amazed that among the thirty teams none have made that happen.

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